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The Bromley By-Election
Yorkshire Post - July
2006
How wise the Liberal Democrats were to choose an experienced leader, opined Lord Tebbit, in tones of icy disdain.
What this shows, riposted Party chairman Francis Maude, the ayatollah of Tory modernisation, is that we must push change faster, deeper, wider.
Meanwhile, in the two key marginal seats of Selby and Outer York party activists ignore pleas from Tory Campaign Headquarters to pick one of the new breed of Cameron-tested A List candidates (and, if at all possible, a woman) in preference for strongly-entrenched politically-savvy local men.
So what is happening? Well, the party is not shrugging off the Bromley by-election near-disaster as just something that went bump in the night. Privately it admits it should not have let the local party run the campaign and should not have allowed the Liberal Democrats the opportunity to attack the Tory candidate Bob Neill for seeking to add a Parliamentary seat to his existing jobs as London Assembly Member and barrister.
But it has a deeper explanation. It is, to put it in marketing terms, that the Tory party is a “brand in transition.” Translated into normal language this means: “Yes, we know that people are pretty confused about what we stand for, but that is inevitable given that David Cameron is in the throes of a huge transformation of the party’s image, politics and make-up. The party has abandoned its old identity (sorry Norman Tebbit, join the dinosaurs) but has not yet established its new one. Wait until the Cameron revolution is complete and the New Model Conservative Party, reflecting today’s concerns or today’s society, will carry all before it.”
This is not just whistling in the wind. Lord Ashcroft’s money is buying a huge amount of data from focus groups. These show, in a nutshell, that the electorate thinks David Cameron is likeable and approachable, is a different sort of Tory, is charismatic and energetic and is a potential winner. That is the good news.
The less good news is that it is not yet sure that he has substance and thinks he jumps too readily onto bandwagons. As for the party, the public accepts that it is listening and changing at last but is confused about what it stands for. More damagingly, are the Conservatives still the same old party underneath?
The best news for the Tories is the mauling Labour is now receiving. The same focus groups find Labour to be tired, jaded, prone to infighting, untrustworthy and that it has broken its promises and fears losing the next election.
They see precious little difference between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. He is experienced, successful and has a strong track record and he does come over as showing concern for ordinary people (the Tories are still seen as the party of the rich and the “city slicker”). But he is also seen as lacking charm and persuasiveness.
So Labour is in serious trouble whilst the Tories are slowly shedding their negatives but have a great deal of persuasion still to do. In particular they need to hammer away at their commitment to the health service and education- the twin issues always at the top of the public’s agenda. They also need to pull back to the party more of the ABC1s (professional and managerial middle classes and skilled workers) – not least because they are a growing segment of the electorate.
When these groups volunteer: “Yes, the Tory party shares my values,” then Cameron will know that he is on his way to Downing St. There is a lot of persuading to do before that happens.
So what of the poor bloody infantry- the party faithful asked to embrace this revolution from above? I think it is also confused and perhaps a little irritated. And the place where this shows is in candidate selection. The selection gatherings listen to the party’s message about the virtues of the A list and the need to select women. But their instinctive feeling is that some of the A list candidates are political virgins with no political pedigree or track record chosen because they symbolise change.
A strong local A List woman candidate with political nous and track record would be the dream candidate. But stack up a novice A Lister against an articulate local with battle honours to his name and they go for the person they feel is right for their constituency.
Up to now David Cameron has had things pretty much all his own way: the revolution has been bloodless. The Labour melt-down giving the Tories unexpected hope that perhaps, after all, the next election is winnable has helped. So has the increasing confidence that the Liberal-Democrats, despite by-election blitzes, have hit their ceiling and will struggle under Ming Campbell who looked to have been putting on years buy the day.
Cameron would do well to stick to his guns despite demands to rush out a full set of new policies. Muzak may be no more agreeable to the ear in politics than it is in shopping centres and restaurants but the hard evidence of the polls is that it is doing what it is there to do- slowly changing perceptions of the party.
Even if the collateral effect is a little confusion…..
© Yorkshire Post
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