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Missing Whiff of fear hangs over Brown's leadership hopes
Yorkshire Post - 22 December
2005
Spare a thought in this season of goodwill for Gordon Brown. Could it be that lurking in that dour Presbyterian breast there is a hint of doubt, a scintilla of uncertainty, a faintest glimmer even of fear?
Not about the economy of course. Gordon Brown doesn’t do self-questioning. But about that seemingly pre-ordained and hugely engineered rendezvous between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Fate- the final coming into his inheritance as Prime Minister.
Even to ask the question seems absurd. Gordon has got it stitched up hasn’t he? Ministers have been tacking across to his camp ever since Tony Blair announced his long-impending resignation. Even those who do not like the prospect have reconciled themselves to its inevitability.
But yet….Conspiracy theories abound. Tony Blair, it is said in business circles, is determined to remain at No.10 long enough to force Brown to accept responsibility for problems in the economy. And, perhaps, for an alternative candidate to emerge. In other words, Blair is looking for ways to shaft Brown.
More importantly, how many Labour backbenchers will permit themselves to think the unthinkable: perhaps Brown will be so much a tarnished figure of the ancient regime that he will find it difficult to combat the youthful, telegenic, confidence of David Cameron?
Certainly Gordon is not a bespoke television politician. His natural style is to lecture, to harangue even, to challenge with his jowly, intense expression. He is Gladstonian in his sense of moral purpose.
Above all he has been there a long time. If he does become
Prime Minister he will combat the desire for change by telling the electorate that it has had one: you wanted a change of government ? You’ve got one. It’s the trick John Major pulled off in 1992.
But will it work against David Cameron’s long wooing of the nation’s women? Look how often Cameron’s media appearances are against a background of children? The message is the one Tony Blair perfected: I care, I feel your concerns, I understand your problems. Trust me – I am like you.
And it could be just enough to put the wind up Labour backbenchers. Labour has a huge lead over the Conservatives in the House of Commons – 160 plus. But it only needs to lose around 30 seats to lose its majority over all other parties. So it is, at least, entirely plausible that the next Government will be either a coalition one or a minority sustained by the tolerance of smaller parties.
And who amongst the minority parties would support a Labour Government. The Liberal Democrats? Ian Paisley’s Ulstermen? The handful of Scottish and Welsh nationalists?
Of course Cameron my implode? But Labour MPs do not think so. The Tories are interested in politics again and Cameron seems to have the “it” factor. Thatcherite nostalgia can be satisfied by voting for Carole Thatcher in I’m a celebrity! The political party has, at last, moved on.
And I suspect it will not be too long before Charles Kennedy moves on. I am uncannily reminded of the circumstances of the Conservative Blackpool conference of 2003 when the plotting against Iain Duncan-Smith became a frenzy. After that conference there was no coming back for IDS. You just knew that the political vultures needed a meal and that he would soon be trussed up and presented on a plate.
It is the same for Kennedy. The speculation is too insistent; his friends too lukewarm; his competitors too keen-eyed as they circle around him.
Three candidates are sniffing at the leadership scent. Menzies Campell represents the old Scottish paternalism- upright, impeccably dressed, with a commanding presence. But he is well into his 60s and has come through a bout of cancer. Ming rarely says anything very memorable but says it with immense authority and hauteur. Under his leadership it is difficult to see the Liberal Democrats offering a real challenge to Labour in the cities.
Both Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten might be better at that. But Hughes had a bad outing in the London mayoral elections and his own colleagues are wearying of his old fashioned leftist policies expressed in invariably over-long speeches. Oaten has turned Winchester into a rock solid Liberal seat but having made a name espousing more market –based ways of delivering public services now seems to be paddling back towards the more “social” outlook of the Liberal rank-and-file.
None of them look convincing- and this may turn Kennedy’s political death into a long-drawn out affair unless Charlie decides the game is not worth the candle and calls it a day.
So the Liberal democrats look like doing the Tories a second favour- a curious mirror image of the first. Having failed to take advantage of the protracted Tory leadership battle they could now embark on one themselves. You can’t get more generous than that.
© Yorkshire Post
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